Maine COVID Vac. Rate 73.73%, Breakthrough Case Rate 72.87%, 3/5-3/12/22.
Posted By Edmund R. Folsom, March 12, 2022.
Maine’s CDC reported earlier this week that it finally cleared its backlog of uncounted COVID-19 cases. During the most recent weekly reporting period, March 5 to March 12, the CDC recorded an additional 1,744 COVID-19 cases, of which 1,271 — 72.87% — were “breakthrough” cases, in people who have received a final vaccine dose. Today, Maine’s COVID-19 vaccination dashboard shows that 73.73% of the overall population has received a final vaccine dose.
In this most recent weekly accounting, the percentage of breakthrough cases almost exactly matches the percentage of the overall population that has received a final vaccine dose. It bears watching whether this is a one-off or something more permanent. In the previous weekly counts since the first of February, the breakthrough rate has run between 55% and 59%.
I’m sure someone will let me know if I’m wrong on this, but I tend to think that if the percentage of breakthrough cases comes to match the percentage of the population who are vaccinated, it will indicate zero current vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection. And if the percentage of breakthrough infections comes to exceed the percentage of the population who have received a final vaccine dose, that will indicate something more concerning than zero effectiveness. Here’s hoping this week’s report is just a one-off.
Since the date in January 2021 when Maine’s CDC reckons the first Mainer was fully vaccinated, breakthrough cases now constitute 36.11% of all recorded COVID-19 cases (71,030 of 196,692).
Breakthrough deaths were 68.9% of all newly recorded deaths with COVID-19 during the past week (20 of 29). For the past two weeks combined, breakthrough deaths have been 61.4% of all newly recorded deaths with COVID-19 (43 of 70).
At this point, fully 70% of reported COVID-19 cases have been diagnosed in people under the age of 50 (162,948 of 232,293) while only 4.6% of Maine’s recorded deaths with COVID-19 have occurred in this age group (100 of 2,145). This means that while just under 30% of Maine’s COVID-19 cases have been recorded in people age 50 and over, more than 95% of recorded deaths with COVID-19 have occurred in this age group.
Update 3/21/22: In its most recent report, Maine’s CDC reports an increase of 1,524 in the total number of COVID-19 cases since the date in January 2021 when the first Maine person was fully vaccinated, rising from 196,692 on March 11 to 198,219 on March 18. But get this — the Maine CDC’s reported breakthrough COVID-19 cases rose 2,084 between March 11 and March 18, from 71,030 to 73,114. In other words, the rise in reported breakthrough cases between March 11 and March 18 is 134.77% of the rise in the number of total reported COVID-19 cases for the period!
Since we know that the number of breakthrough cases cannot have exceeded the total number of cases during the period, either: (1) the numbers Maine’s CDC is publishing are junk, or (2) the CDC must be reaching back and reclassifying some previously reported COVID-19 cases as breakthroughs, or (3) both.
When the percentage of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations or deaths among the fully vaccinated equals or exceeds the percentage of fully vaccinated people in the population, it indicates that vaccine effectiveness against infection, hospitalization or death, respectively, has reached zero. Here’s the recent pattern in Maine, according to the Maine CDC’s breakthrough numbers:
Breakthrough Cases:
Rise 2/4 – 3/18: 31,897 of 53,630 cases = 59.46%
Rise 2/28 – 3/18: 5,712 of 7,388 cases = 77.31%
Breakthrough Deaths:
Rise 2/28 – 3/18: 67 of 107 deaths = 65.6%
Rise 3/11 – 3/18: 24 of 32 deaths = 75%
Breakthrough Hospitalizations:
Rise 2/28 – 3/18: 90 of 150 hosp. = 60%
Rise 3/11 – 3/18: 31 of 47 hosp. = 65.9%
As of today, Maine’s COVID-19 dashboard shows an overall-population vaccination rate of 73.85%. As discussed previously, data published by the U.S. CDC shows that vaccine effectiveness drops off very rapidly.
Since the date in January of 2021 when the first person in Maine was fully vaccinated, COVID-19 cases in people who received a final vaccine dose are now 36.88% of all recorded COVID-19 cases (73,114 of 198,219).