COVID-19 Deaths in Lighter Lockdown States a Fraction of Heavy Lockdown States – Falling Throughout U.S.
Posted by Edmund R. Folsom
June 24, 2020
Here are some COVID-19 stats you won’t see in your local newspaper, the New York Times, the Washington Post, or on ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC or even Fox News. Consider these stats as you are continually barraged by threats that we’ll soon need a return to lockdowns.
Pot Screams, “Kettle Black!”
The heaviest, most dedicated lockdown states include New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Ohio and Rhode Island. They have a combined population of about 87.4 million. They also have, according to Worldometers.info as of this writing, 79,551 recorded COVID-19 deaths between them. That’s a COVID-19 deaths per million rate of 910.19. Their COVID-19 cases per million rates range from 21,211 for New York to 3,951 for Ohio, with New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island all above 10,850 per million.
We have been told repeatedly since May that the governors of Florida, Texas and Georgia are reckless fools for reopening too soon. Lockdown advocates, mostly from the heavy lockdown states discussed above, despise and deride them constantly. How do the COVID-19 death numbers of the heavily criticized states stack up against those of the heavy lockdown states?
California, Texas and Florida alone have a combined population of about 90.41 million people. I’m throwing California in with Florida and Texas because the media are trying to sell us on the idea that California is “spiking,” and that this demonstrates the foolhardiness of reopening, even though California began reopening well after Florida and Texas. The combined COVID-19 death total for California, Texas and Florida is 11,126, which gives them a COVID-19 death rate of 123 per million (910.19 deaths per million for the heavy lockdown group; 123 per million for these 3). If we take out California and look only at Texas and Florida, we have 5,491 COVID-19 deaths in a combined population of 50.9 million — a COVID-19 death rate of 107.87 per million.
If we add heavily-criticized Georgia and the most recent focus of criticism from the pro-lockdown crowd, Arizona, to California, Texas and Florida, we are dealing with a total population of about 101.71 million. These 5 states have a total of 15,198 COVID-19 deaths, for a combined death rate of 149.42 per million. Georgia is the worst of the bunch, with a rate of 253 deaths per million, and Texas is the best of the bunch with a rate of 78 per million. In this group, COVID-19 cases per million (not deaths, but cases per million) range from a high of 7,993 for Arizona to a low of 4,311 for Texas.
To Summarize Heavy Lockdown versus Lighter Lockdown states:
Cases per million:
Heavy lockdown group range:
– high of 21,211 (NY) to low of 3,951 (OH).
Lighter lockdown group range:
– high of 7,993 (AZ) to low of 4,311 (TX).
Total COVID-19 Deaths:
Heavy lockdown group:
– 79,551 in combined population of 87.4 million.
Lighter lockdown group:
– 15,198 in a combined population of 101.71 million.
Deaths per million:
Heavy lockdown group range:
– overall rate 910.19 deaths per million, high of 1,610 (NY) to low of 234 (Ohio).
Lighter lockdown group range:
– overall rate of 149.42 per million, high of 253 (GA) to low of 78 (TX).
Where do Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont fit in?
Maine is arguably the heaviest lockdown state in the U.S. Its deaths per million rate is 76, versus 78 for Texas. Vermont’s deaths per million rate is 90, exceeding that of Texas. New Hampshire’s is 252, exceeding that of California, Texas, Florida and Arizona, and besting Georgia by 1.
South Dakota, which never locked down at all, has a COVID-19 death rate of 94 per million, placing it slightly above Vermont’s rate of 90, but well below New Hampshire’s 252.
How do the heavy lockdown and lighter lockdown groups fare against European countries?
Western European countries were quite heavy on lockdowns, particularly Italy and Spain. Again, according to Worldometers.info, the United Kingdom has a death rate of 632 per million, Spain 606 per million, and Italy 573 per million. Sweden, which did not impose a lockdown at all, has a COVID-19 death rate of 511 per million. The U.K.’s rate marks western Europe’s high, while Greece’s rate of 18 per million marks its low.
Recall that Georgia’s rate of 253 deaths per million marks the high end of the U.S. deaths per million range for our lighter lockdown group. The following western European countries exceed Georgia’s rate, and therefore that of Florida, Texas, California and Arizona (as well as that of non-lockdown South Dakota):
Texas marks the low end of our lighter lockdown group, with 78 deaths per million. Among western European countries, only Greece, Norway and Finland at 18, 46 and 59 deaths per million respectively, best Texas’s rate. In fact, Texas’s rate of 78 deaths per million is better than widely-touted Germany’s rate of 107 COVID-19 deaths per million. Among our heavy lockdown group, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island each far exceeds all western European rates of deaths per million. Illinois, Pennsylvania and Michigan also each well exceeds the rate of most Western European countries.
U.S. COVID-19 death rates continue a downward plunge.
In Maine, there have been 3 COVID-19 deaths recorded in the last 16 days. There were a total of 267 COVID-19 deaths recorded in the U.S. and its territories this past Sunday, June 21, 2020, the lowest U.S. daily death count since March 23, 2020! The pattern of weekly COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. and its territories is as follows: week of May 17 – 8,330 deaths; week of May 24 – 6,913; week of May 31 – 6,037; week of June 7 – 5,389; week of June 14 (last week) – 4,389. Pattern? I think so. Falling? No doubt.
When you hear the news about spikes. Consider that the news is coming from the places with the most deaths, leveling criticism at those with orders of magnitude fewer.
Fear is power. No fear, no power.
Disclaimer: This blog post does not contain legal advice. It is for informational purposes only. It is not to be taken as legal advice.